When is Kīlauea's next eruption?
Kīlauea's summit eruption comes in numbered episodes of lava fountaining, separated by pauses of days to weeks. USGS forecasts each next episode from ground deformation; this page carries their current answer, plus the one thing they don't publish: how long the pauses have actually run.
Kīlauea is not erupting. Episode 52 ended at 2:36 PM HST. USGS has not published a window for Episode 53 yet. One appears in their daily update when summit reinflation gives them enough data.
Kīlauea volcano is not erupting; the summit eruption in Halemaʻumaʻu is paused. Episode 52 ended at 2:36 p.m. HST on July 9. Reinflation indicates another episode is likely but more data are needed to determine the forecast.
The pattern so far
Since December 2024 the episodes have been short, most under a day of fountaining, with 51 completed pauses between them on the record. The pauses are history, not a forecast. But they are the honest way to calibrate what "soon" has meant at this volcano.
- After Episode 51: 13 days
- After Episode 50: 18 days
- After Episode 49: 13 days
- After Episode 48: 13 days
- After Episode 47: 17 days
- After Episode 46: 9 days
The spread is the point: pauses have run anywhere from 16 hours to 30 days. A median is not a schedule, and when USGS publishes a window, that window is the only forecast on this page.
How USGS calls it
Scientists estimate these windows by tracking summit tilt, seismicity, and GPS ground deformation. You can watch the same signals yourself: the live dashboard tracks summit tilt and the current alert level between updates. Open the dashboard →
Know the moment it starts
We email subscribers when a new episode begins, from the same USGS data this page reads. One email when it matters, nothing else.
✉️ Eruption email alerts
One email when Kīlauea's status actually changes, nothing else. Unsubscribe anytime.
Episode dates, durations and pause lengths are USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory preliminary values and can be revised. USGS Eruption Information. All data from USGS/HVO. Not affiliated with USGS.